Variance rears it's ugly head again!

Weeeeee, after running kinda good and pwning lots of fish and getting my roll to $6100, i took a hit sunday and lost 8 buyins @ 100NL, 50BB's @ 200NL and bought into the 20k (which i busted outta ASAP- lol donkaments). I wish i could blame it all on running bad, but i made some stupid mistakes like stacking off with the nut flush when i was so focused on chanting K OR SPADE ONE TIME FTW, that i didn't realise the board had paired :|

So yeah, roll hit $5100 but mehhh i'm feeling good about this year and i really think setting goals will motive me to play lots and play GOOT, because if i run 1BB/100 @ 100NL and play 40 hours a week, plus RB.. ill make around $30,000 this year, and i fully expect to be playing 1-2 and 2-4 by then at least and want a win rate of at least 2.5BB/100 so the possibilities are endless! :)

I feel my game has improved a lot recently- especially my agression and hand reading which all-in-all has made Poker fun to play again :D

I played a 6 hour session today, after a shaky start (thanks to my sucky internet which is apparently being fixed @ the end of the month) and won $500, so my roll is back to $5500. I darn't talk about win rates until iv'e played at LEAST 100k hands of 100NL then ill see how much i could make this year.

Anyway, here's an interesting hand i played earlier:

Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1
Seat 1: ShipItH0lla ($180.45 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: MateushM ($104.10 in chips)
Seat 5: bertbert88 ($256.55 in chips)
Seat 6: juboy12 ($20.00 in chips)
Seat 8: Drummondteam ($62.70 in chips)
Seat 10: Crazybastardo ($123.85 in chips)
MateushM: Post SB $0.50
bertbert88: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ShipItH0lla [Qd 10d]
juboy12: Fold
Drummondteam: Call $1.00
Crazybastardo: Fold
ShipItH0lla: Raise $5.00
MateushM: Fold
bertbert88: Call $4.00
Drummondteam: Fold
*** FLOP *** [2d 4s 5d]
bertbert88: Check
ShipItH0lla: Bet $8.00
bertbert88: Call $8.00
*** TURN *** [2h]
bertbert88: Check
ShipItH0lla: Check
*** RIVER *** [8s]
bertbert88: Bet $16.00
ShipItH0lla: Raise $42.00
bertbert88: Fold
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $82.55 Rake $2.95
ShipItH0lla: wins $82.55

My thoughts were obv to raise preflop after a limper, gotta isolate those fish!
I flop a FD and 2 overs so obv i have to take a stab, but i probs bet 90% of flops anyway so that's super std. After he calls i decide the 2 is a terrible card to 2 barrel as everything he calls with on the flop arn't scared by the 2 so hes pretty much always calling a turn bet because my image sucks too (which i'm desperatly trying to improve, but failing :(, so i take the free card.

Now, the interesting part is the river, where he fires 2/3.. i thought about this for a while and tried to put him on a range of hands... his general post flop play was fairly agressive with TP+, so on that board i'd assume he'd raise a set or an overpair which he slowplayed preflop, which left me thinking he had a weak overpair that he was floating or he had a draw of some kind. On the river i think he's smart enough to realise that if he has like 77 or 99, his hand has showdown value and betting here accomplishes nothing unless he thinks for some reason i'm folding TT+ which leaves me believing he's either made a straight with 67 (unlikely) or hes got a busted flush (a lot more likely IMO). And well, i have Q high so obv i can't call his A high FD or w/e, so i raise.. and decide to make a small raise, because he isn't calling with A high whatever i raise but if he happens to have a straight or something fun like a rivered boat with 88 then i get away cheaper than if i make it $55+ to go... anyway, comments appreciated!


Oh, and heres another fun hand, What is this? you call with KJ?

Texas Hold'em NL $0.50/$1.00
Seat 1: Powsmowl ($120.75 in chips)
Seat 3: IQMAN ($144.60 in chips) DEALER
Seat 5: oneforme ($94.00 in chips)
Seat 6: eltron ($173.60 in chips)
Seat 8: semprevinci ($130.70 in chips)
Seat 10: ShipItH0lla ($397.85 in chips)
oneforme: Post SB $0.50
eltron: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ShipItH0lla [As Ah]
semprevinci: Fold
ShipItH0lla: Raise $4.00
Powsmowl: Fold
IQMAN: Raise $7.00
oneforme: Fold
eltron: Fold
ShipItH0lla: Raise $23.00
IQMAN: Call $20.00
*** FLOP *** [2s 7c 6c]
ShipItH0lla: Bet $370.85
IQMAN: Allin $117.60
*** TURN *** [2c]
*** RIVER *** [Qh]
IQMAN Shows [Kc Jc]
*** SUMMARY ***
IQMAN: wins $287.70

I was trying to rep his hand on the flop, which explains the overbet because i have yet to raise this big with an overpair, so just mixing it up a little.

Anyway, more hands to be played, after i get another 3 hours sleep or whatever tonight before a full day of uni tomorrow :|

Later!