Friday, February 15, 2008

Implied Odds

Guess I mis-interpreted the last question as he was asking more about stack sizes vs. implied odds.

Question:
I'm more interested in when i hear people say they fold a certain hand in a cash game because "their isn't set value" or they fold because the guy only has xx big blinds.

Okay, so this is a question that relates to implied odds and when it is favorable to play a hand for them. The bigger your opponents stack compared to his raise the better your implied odds will be.

For example:
You're playing against player A. You have played many hands against player A before and you know that when he opens for a 6xBB raise that he always has a big pocket pair. You also know that he will not fold an overpair on the flop.

Situation 1:
You are playing a 0.50/1 game and his starting stack is 36$ he opens in the small blind for 6$ and you look down in the BB and see pocket 2s, what do you do?

Answer: Fold. You have to make a 5$ call here and you are only 8:1 to flop the set you need. This means for your call to be a profitable call you need him to commit 40$ or more to the pot and seeing as he does not have that much money it makes calling an unprofitable proposition. You also have to account for the times that your set gets cracked (set over set) and the times where you doesn't go all in when you hit the set. (ie: he has KK and A23 flops, he probably will get scared by the ace and not commit his entire stack). Accounting for all this makes it a really easy fold.

Situation 2:
Same situation but now you both have 100$ stacks, what do you do?

Answer: Call. You are calling off 5$ in the hopes of flopping your set. You will hit your set approxiamately 1 in 9 times and from your knowledge of player A you know that you will win the rest of his 94$ the majority of the time you hit your set. This is clearly a profitable play. As your implied odds on your 5$ call are roughly 20:1. (IE: his stack size is 20 times what you commited when you made the call.)

Hope that clears that up.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

alright cool, makes sense.

thanks man